This Week

Economic Forecast and Calendar
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IndicatorPeriodRelease
Date		PreviousIrwin Kellner's ForecastMarket-
Watch
survey		The other
surveys		Actual
ISM ManufacturingNov.12/1
10am		38.9%37%37.0% 38.4% 36.2%
Construction spendingOct.12/1
10am		-0.3%-1.5%-1.3% -0.9% -1.2%
ADP employmentNov.12/3
8:15am		-157,000-225,000-250,000 -205,000 -250,000
ProductivityQ3 rev.12/3
8:30am		1.1%1.1%0.9% 0.9% 1.3%
Unit labor costsQ3 rev.12/3
8:30am		3.6%3.6%3% 3.6% 2.8%
ISM servicesNov.12/3
10am		44.4%43%42.7% 43% 37.3%
Jobless claimsNov. 2912/4
8:30am		530,000550,000N/A540,000 509,000
Factory ordersOct.12/4
10am		-3.1%-3.0%NA -2.8% -5.1%
Nonfarm payrollsNov.12/5
8:30am		-240,000-255,000-350,000 -300,000 
Unemployment rateNov.12/5
8:30am		6.5%6.8%6.8%6.8% 
Average hourly earningsNov.12/5
8:30am		0.2%0.1%0.2% 0.2% 
Consumer creditOct.12/5
3pm		$6.86 billion-$10.0 billionNA$2.3 billion 
Current quarter GDP4Q1/30
8:30am		-0.5% (3Q) -3.9% -3.6%  
 GDP1Q4/28
8:30am		-0.5% (3Q) -2.5% -2%  
Federal Reserve Policy Forecast
Current policyAfter FOMC 
meeting on		Kellner's forecastMarketWatch consensus
Fed Funds:
1%
Dec. 160.5%0.75%
Jan. 280.5%0.5%
April 290.5%0.5%
Odds of change
from current policy

 

Dec. 1699%60%
Jan. 2899%68%
April 2999%80%

 

 

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